Thursday, June 7, 2018

Big Data needs Big Actuaries

The American Academy of Actuaries recently published a monograph Big Data and the Role of the Actuary.

Some speculate that the Academy may also produce a monolith dedicated to Big Data as well.



Or maybe a monogram.


Either way, what is certain is that Big Data and the applicable statistical methods that come along with it are going to play a significant role in the actuarial profession.

And in order to handle Big Data, you need a Big Actuary.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Review of the Human Longevity Project Series

Over the past 9 days, a series of videos compiled by The Human Longevity Project, explored various topics related to human longevity. This is not a typical Netflix binge watch, although the old folks they interviewed were quite adorable. The series delivered huge dosages of scientific content from a vast panel of experts.


Monday, March 12, 2018

March Madness 2018 - Actuarial School Bracket

Most likely, having an actuarial program has next to zero correlation with NCAA tournament success.  I haven't done the full blown anlaysis, I might one day. That said, the tournament does have a degree of randomness, and using actuarial strength as a game predictor is just as good as throwing darts.  Possibly better.

The full bracket is available here (may require CBS login):
http://freebracketchallenge.1.mayhem.cbssports.com/brackets/1/njworrell

Thursday, March 8, 2018

I'd Like to Thank The Academy....2017 Actuarial Awards Summary


©NaimaLett.com: Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony, Lombardi, O’Brien, Commissioner, Olympic Gold

The Oscars completes the awards season.  Awards are everywhere....Emmys, Grammys, ESPYs, oh my!  Even the POTUS submitted his own version of awards.

While not given the exact same spotlight, or fancy evening wear, actuaries give out their own sets of Awards.  The 2017 summary is below.

Friday, November 10, 2017

New Actuarial Standard on How To Put on Pants


Recent ASB proposals for modeling, pricing, and assumption setting standards of practice seem to be starting a trend of codifying every single action an actuary takes.  The latest release seems to confirm this theory.

An exposure draft, titled  "Lower Body Coverings" is currently in progress.

Apparently there is much concern in the actuarial community about the quality of work based on how one applies lower limb coverings. An improper procedure may result in further deterioration of judgment, confidence, and overall work product. To put it one way, the exposure draft deals with the risks of feeling drafts while exposed.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

New Insurance Products Announced for Undead


In an effort to find new business, insurers are dabbling into new, untapped markets.

Traditionally the insurance industry protected against two risks - death via Life Insurance and longevity via annuities.

The limiting factor to each of these is that you either had to be alive or die to collect a claim.  This was an issue if you were already dead, sort of dead, or came back to life after death.  Now, a new set of products is coming on to the market to meet those needs.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Bayesian Rhapsody

Hard to believe, it's been six months since the last entry. This one has been floating around for a bit.  The whole thing with Bayes is about updating likelihoods given more information. Let's see how Queen takes us on a journey. 
We start with a fundamental question about the nature of reality, and fact about landslides.
Is this the real life? Pr(Real Life) = ?
Is this just fantasy? Pr(Fantasy) = 1 - Pr(Real Life)
Caught in a landslide,
No escape from reality Pr(Real Life | Caught in a landslide ) = 1