Friday, September 1, 2017

Bayesian Rhapsody

Hard to believe, it's been six months since the last entry. This one has been floating around for a bit.  The whole thing with Bayes is about updating likelihoods given more information. Let's see how Queen takes us on a journey. 
We start with a fundamental question about the nature of reality, and fact about landslides.
Is this the real life? Pr(Real Life) = ?
Is this just fantasy? Pr(Fantasy) = 1 - Pr(Real Life)
Caught in a landslide,
No escape from reality Pr(Real Life | Caught in a landslide ) = 1
Open your eyes,
Look up to the skies and see,
I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy,
Pr(poor boy AND needs no sympathy) = 1
Because I'm easy come, easy go Pr(Needs sympathy|easy come easy go) = 0, Pr(Easy come easy go)= 1
Little high, little low
Any way the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me
Pr(Real Life | the way the wind blows) = Pr(Real Life)
Pr(Fantasy| the way the wind blows ) = Pr(Fantasy)
Mama, just killed a man
Put a gun against his head
Pulled my trigger, now he's dead
Pr(Dead| Gun against head and pulled trigger) = 1 (or at least close)
Mama, life had just begun
But now I've gone and thrown it all away
Mama, ooh (any way the wind blows)
Didn't mean to make you cry
If I'm not back again this time tomorrow
Carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters
Pr(Real Life| Not back again tomorrow) = 0
Too late, my time has come
Sends shivers down my spine
Body's aching all the time
Goodbye, everybody, I've got to go
Gotta leave you all behind and face the truth
Mama, ooh (any way the wind blows)
I don't wanna die,
I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all Pr(Going to Die | Never born) = 0
I see a little silhouetto of a man,
Scaramouche, Scaramouche, will you do the Fandango?
Thunderbolt and lightning
Very, very frightening me
(Galileo) Galileo
(Galileo) Galileo
Galileo Figaro
Magnifico-o-o-o-o
Not sure how much this section adds to the data. 
I'm just a poor boy, nobody loves me
He's just a poor boy from a poor family
(remember poor boys need no sympathy, from above)
Spare him his life from this monstrosity
Easy come, easy go, will you let me go? 0 < Pr(Let me go) < 1
Bismillah! No, we will not let you go (let him go!) Pr(Let me go | Bismillah) < Pr (Let me go)
Bismillah! We will not let you go (let him go!) Pr(Let me go | Bismillah x2) < Pr(Let me go | Bismillah)
Bismillah! We will not let you go (let him go!) Pr(Let me go | Bismillah x3) = 0 (or very very close)
Will not let you go (let him go!)
Never, never let you go
Never let me go, oh
No, no, no, no, no, no, no
Oh, mama mia, mama mia (mama mia, let me go)
Beelzebub has a devil put aside for me, for me, for me
So you think you can stone me and spit in my eye? (Yeah!)
So you think you can love me and leave me to die?
Oh, baby, can't do this to me, baby
Just gotta get out, just gotta get right outta here 
Pr(Outta here) = 1 - Pr(Caught in a landslide), 
Pr(Not Back Again Tommorow | Outta here) = 1
Pr(Real Life | not back tomorrow) = 0 , therefore....
Nothing really matters
Anyone can see
Nothing really matters
Nothing really matters to me
Pr(Fantasy) = 1 
Any way the wind blows While this was already established as not useful information, upon further consideration, 
if the wind blows in such a way that it creates a landslide, we are back to square 1 again.


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