March Madness 2018 - Actuarial School Bracket

Most likely, having an actuarial program has next to zero correlation with NCAA tournament success.  I haven't done the full blown anlaysis, I might one day. That said, the tournament does have a degree of randomness, and using actuarial strength as a game predictor is just as good as throwing darts.  Possibly better.

The full bracket is available here (may require CBS login):
http://freebracketchallenge.1.mayhem.cbssports.com/brackets/1/njworrell

Methodology

The stronger the school's actuarial program, the higher they score.

Primary Source of information is the SOA's list of schools with actuarial programs.

Scoring

• On the list, 1pt
• Offer Masters and Bachelors, +1
• UCAP Level bonus
• IC +1
• AC +2
• CAE +3

Secondary source of information is a Google search for school name + actuarial science.  A variety of results came up.  Some schools have "concentrations" or "emphasis" in actuarial science. Others offer Minors. If a school showed some offering that wasn't already captured by the SOA list, I gave them credit as follows.

• Concentration/Emphasis +0.25
• Minor +0.5
• Major +1

Additionally, if it was easy to see that the school had an Actuarial Science club for students, I gave them one more bonus point.

When filling out the bracket, the school with highest actuarial score will advance.  In the case of a tie, the higher seeded team advances.  For play-in games, I used the average of the competing schools scores.

Results/Observations

Michigan scores strongest, and ultimately wins the tournament, offering Masters and Bachelors programs, they are a CAE school, and they have an actuarial club.  Also scoring strongly are Texas, Georgia State and Florida State.

The Final Four is:

• Texas (5 points)
• Michigan (6 points)
• Purdue (4 points)
• Michigan State (3 points)

The strongest actuarial region is the East, with 8/16 teams earning 3 or more points.  The West is next with Michigan (6pts) and Fl. State (5pts) and Ohio State (3 pts).   The South takes third, buoyed by Texas (5pts) and Butler (4pts).  Midwest comes in last.

The highest seeded team with an actuarial school > 1 is Purdue, a  2-seed, with 4pts.  Cincinnati, another 2-seed, gets 2pts.  At the 3-seed level, Michigan and Michigan State score strongly with 6pts and 3pts respectively.

Table of results:

Team	Seed	Region	Google	UCAP	AC/IC/CAE	Club	Score
Villanova	1	East	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Purdue	2	East	Major	Bachelors	AC	Yes	4
Texas Tech	3	East	Minor	None	None	Yes	1.5
Wichita State	4	East	Major	None	None		1
West Virginia	5	East	Major	Bachelors	IC	Yes	3
Florida	6	East	Major	Bachelors	AC	Yes	4
Arkansas	7	East	None	None	None		0
Virginia Tech	8	East	Minor	None	None		0.5
Alabama	9	East	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Butler	10	East	Major	Bachelors	AC	Yes	4
UCLA	11	East	Major	Bachelors	AC	Yes	4
St. Bonaventure	11	East	None	None	None		0
Murray State	12	East	Major	Masters, Bachelors	IC		3
Marshall	13	East	None	None	None		0
Stephen F. Austin	14	East	None	None	None		0
Cal State Fullerton	15	East	Major	Bachelors	AC		3
Long Island University	16	East	None	None	None		0
Radford	16	East	None	None	None		0
Kansas	1	Midwest	None	None	None		0
Duke	2	Midwest	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Michigan State	3	Midwest	Major	Bachelors	AC		3
Auburn	4	Midwest	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Clemson	5	Midwest	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Texas Christian	6	Midwest	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Rhode Island	7	Midwest	None	None	None		0
Seton Hall	8	Midwest	none	None	None		0
NC State	9	Midwest	None	None	None		0
Oklahoma	10	Midwest	None	None	None		0
Arizona State	11	Midwest	Major	Bachelors	AC		3
Syracuse	11	Midwest	None	None	None		0
New Mexico State	12	Midwest	Minor	None	None		0.5
College of Charleston	13	Midwest	Major	None	None		1
Bucknell	14	Midwest	None	None	None		0
Iona	15	Midwest	None	None	None		0
Pennsylvania	16	Midwest	Major	None	None		1
Virginia	1	South	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Cincinnati	2	South	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Tennessee	3	South	none	None	None		0
Arizona	4	South	None	None	None		0
Kentucky	5	South	None	None	None		0
Miami (FL)	6	South	None	None	None		0
Nevada	7	South	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Creighton	8	South	None	None	None		0
Kansas State	9	South	Major	None	None		1
Texas	10	South	Major	Masters, Bachelors	AC	Yes	5
Loyola (IL)	11	South	Minor	None	None		0.5
Davidson	12	South	None	None	None		0
Buffalo	13	South	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Wright State	14	South	Major	None	None		1
Georgia State	15	South	Major	Masters, Bachelors	CAE		5
Maryland-Baltimore County	16	South	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Xavier	1	West	Major	None	None		1
North Carolina	2	West	None	None	None		0
Michigan	3	West	Major	Masters, Bachelors	CAE	Yes	6
Gonzaga	4	West	None	None	None	Yes	1
Ohio State	5	West	Major	Bachelors	IC	Yes	3
Houston	6	West	None	None	None		0
Texas A&M	7	West	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Missouri	8	West	Major	Bachelors	IC		2
Florida State	9	West	Major	Masters, Bachelors	AC	Yes	5
Providence	10	West	None	None	None		0
San Diego State	11	West	Concentration	None	None		0.25
South Dakota State	12	West	None	None	None		0
NC-Greensboro	13	West	Concentration	None	None		0.25
Montana	14	West	None	None	None		0
Lipscomb	15	West	None	None	None		0
NC Central	16	West	None	None	None		0
Texas Southern	16	West	None	None	None		0