Models and Drunks

I am not referring to Gigi or Gisele or Gumble or Griffin.  Rather, "models and drunks" is a contrite summary of a couple of my recent readings that I figured should find their way to this space. (By the way,  this confusion about models has happened before.)

First, models. I have long been a fan of the phrase that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." However, much to my shame, I know not where it came from.  Now I do. Thank you Twitter for enlightening me about George Box and his paper.   Not only am I know aware, but I have been shaken to my core. More on that later.

Second, drunks - and specifically how they walk.  The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow (http://leonardmlodinow.com/) is what I call a mathematician's apologetic - an attempt to make math accessible to the masses.   His book is part of my attempt to work through a reading list (again - thanks Twitter!) of math texts.  I give the guy a couple of stars for effort on the mathematical narration, but the real gold is in the cast of characters.  They will be featured in a future post.  In this post, I will leave you with flip flops.

Vitality Compass vs. Longevity Illustrator

If you want to know how long you are going to live, you could consult a palm reader or some other mystic.  Alternatively you could look to science, math and academia.  But who wins between academics and actuaries?

Engage or Disengage?

Recently, the Society of Actuaries deployed their latest community site, SOA Engage.
https://engage.soa.org/home

While unlikely to get the traction of the Actuarial Outpost or a Reinsurance sponsored Happy Hour at a symposium, the threshold is pretty low.  A few actuaries showing up will likely be considered a win.

This initiative brings to mind a past article by BTS, about actuaries engineering anti-social Media.
http://betweenthespreadsheets.blogspot.ca/2013/04/actuaries-engineer-anti-social-media.html

If Donald Trump Ran for SOA President

The current political pageantry and it's primary peacock, one Donald J Trump, has inspired Between the Spreadsheets to ponder, if we could find it palatable, a parallel universe in which this prima dona found himself placed on the ballot for SOA President. 

We pulled the questionnaire from the society's website and did our best to imagine how the Donald may have answered, pulling direct quotes where possible, indicated by " ", everything else is fiction.

Readers are welcome to add Trumpisms that may apply.

Actuarial @ASAPscience

We call ourselves actuaries, but how many of us could call ourselves scientists as well?  After all, the field we practice is Actuarial Science.

And yes, bulk of our discipline is math and probability based, but let us not kid ourselves that we are unique in our application of these subjects.

• The Random Walk a.k.a Brownian Motion - comes from physics
• Regressive models are scattered across scientific fields from sociology to biology
• Sampling Techniques, a.k.a Experience Studies, are present in marketing and politics
• Game Theory comes from...A Beautiful Mind. Kidding. Economics and psychology

I've always love exploring the science behind the events that we create insurance products for.  Recently, I came across the guys at ASAPscience, and their fun YouTube videos.  Below are a few that pertain to actuarial concepts.

I Get Knocked Down, But I Get up Again

As an actuary, my life revolves around studying the risks of shitty things happening.  I know that the whims of the universe may smite me with some nasty disease or some sleepy bus driver could turn me into a pavement pizza.  As such, I have protected myself and my family from the financial strain of such calamities through the purchase of the various insurance products I've grown to love.  They're like a family that protects my family...

Then came the day that I never saw coming.

Paid To Be Wrong vs. Paid to be Right

For today's Nate Note, I'm considering various occupations and various tolerances for "rightness" and "wrongness".  My primary question is, in what professions can you be wrong and still keep your job?

Comedian Louis CK Goes Full Actuary

So I'm watching Netflix and enjoying a little comedy when I hear Louis CK make some actuarial statements. In this video clip, you can hear his remarks - note that this YouTube link is not authorized by Louis CK to my knowledge and it is his full special.  There is strong language in it. You can find the full version on Netflix or purchase it from Louis CK's website. After watching for a minute or so, let's unpack the statements.  I'll try to do it in such a way that even non-actuary's can follow. Other actuaries reading this - my methods are crude, feel free to make it more exact if you desire.