The Fed Awakens - Actuarial Reactions Vary

Image from Jeff Burney at
 http://www.cartoonmovement.com/cartoon/26133

The rumors, speculation and controversial photos of the fed funds rate looking a bit pudgier than normal can come to an end as Janet Yellen confirmed that rates are no longer zero.

The recent Fed announcement that marked the end of easy money also sparked interesting reactions from the actuarial community.

New Clipped Art - Actuarial Tombstone

I always assumed that I would donate my body to science or get cremated, and not need a tombstone.  After this idea popped in my head, I may just get one regardless.

Only actuaries will understand this...

https://sites.google.com/site/btsclippedart/actuarial-tombstone

Translations...

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/population-and-migration/demography/guide-to-calculating-interim-life-tables/index.html

If There was a Fantasy League for Actuaries....

Drafts occur at the SOA annual meeting.

Rosters need to include:
3 Pre-ASA Students
2 Post-ASA Students
3 Fully Credentialed Actuaries, one of which must be a consultant
1 Appointed Actuary
1 Chief Actuary
1 Insurance/Financial/Software/Risk Management Company that employs at least 50 actuaries

Scoring:
10 points per preliminary exam passed
5 points first time pass bonus
2 points per FAP module completed
3 points per passed Assessment
20 points per FSA/FCAS exam passed
4 points per FSA module completed
5 points for acheiving any credential (FSA, FCAS, CERA, ASA, etc.)
1 point per hour of CPD

4 points per speech/presentation at a symposium
7 points for any signed statement of actuarial opinion or rate filing
3 points per hired actuary
-3 points per lost actuary
-5 points for any ABCD greivance filed against anyone on the roster

Society of Actuaries Logos That Didn't Make the Cut

In the latest attempt to rouge the lips of the swine that is the Society of Actuaries brand, (see the Image of the Actuary as the previous campaign), a new logo emerged as the graphical representation of the organization.

The "infinity shield", according the brand website "symbolizes that the SOA is continually evolving to produce forward-thinking education and professional development opportunities. The shield represents a strong, fortified foundation, bound by standards and principles that advance your interests."

Wikipedia calls it an "impossible object".

So, quite simply, the essence of an actuary is represented by an infinite impossibility. Fitting, as much of the public still has no idea what actuaries do and some still doubt that actuaries actually exist. Why not be represented by a geometric symbol from the realm of mythology and legend?
Sources leaked some alternative designs that almost made the cut:

Hug An Actuary!

When it comes to Actuarial swag, there's not a whole lot out there.  However, recently at a conference, a "Hug An Actuary" hat made a noticeable appearance among the humdrum of business casual. This inspired the following list of reasons (if you needed any) to Hug an Actuary!

1. Actuaries won't bite.  They are gentle creatures, although solitary at times (like cats in a way) - which leads to...
2. It will force an actuary to interact with another human being
3. They may have just learned if they passed or failed the exam they were studying for and need to celebrate or be comforted.
4. They may be studying for an exam, in which case they could use some reassurance and a little confidence boost.
5. Some analytical skills might rub off.  At the very least you might find yourself a little more proficient in Excel.
6. It's a good way to confirm the actuary is not a robot.
7. It's a good way to confirm that actuaries actually exist.
8. If lots of actuaries get hugs, then the prices of insurance in the market might drop, starting an economic boost.
9. It might lead to steamier forms of physical contact (this may be a drawback)
10. HUGS ARE AWESOME!

The Joke's on us

Caught a link to a set of insurance jokes and some feature actuaries. 

http://www.lifehealthpro.com/2015/06/11/32-great-insurance-jokes/

http://www.lifehealthpro.com/2014/12/09/20-of-the-best-insurance-jokes

One is a "twist" on how many actuaries it takes to change a lightbulb.

 I have my answer

https://sites.google.com/site/btsclippedart/home/lightbulb

Why do churches buy insurance?

After all, don't most sacred texts encourage a sort of dependency on the higher powers?  Does the act of purchasing protection from "acts of  God" seem to imply a lack of faith?  Or is it simply just a good idea and a prudent way to manage these houses of worship?

Nate-rodamous

For much of my actuarial career, I have used computer programs to collide one set of numbers (representing you and me and other insured folks) with another set of numbers (representing fate and chance) to produce a third set of numbers which I use to figure how much to charge for a promise, or to make sure that the insurance company can keep its promise.

Some insurance is short term in nature, but things like Annuities, Long Term Care and Life Insurance require forecasts far into the future, often 30 to even 50 years!  30 years ago there were no smart phones, no YouTube videos of cats, and "Googol" meant a really large number. (10 with 100 zeroes after it).

The forecasting models we use are not as advanced as Doc's DeLorean.

To be honest, Actuaries don't know what exactly will happen in the future. Although I played with this idea in my more humorous posts (Scenario 241 Sucks and Actuary Accidentally Invents Time Travel).  The models are basically advanced tools to see how many times you'll get snake-eyes on the craps table if you played once a month for the next three decades. Thankfully, most insurance risks are predictable in the long run.

But, financial mathematicians have also had to eat some crow when the unpredictable happens and models fail.

For me, I think that running a predictive model without considering what the future might look like is like a meteorologist predicting the weather using a computer and never looking out the window. For instance,  I think the recent study from the Global Challenges Foundation on 12 Risks With Infinite Impact should be mandatory reading. Full report here, summary here.

I therefore submit for your consideration some predictions of events (good and bad) that will occur over the next 30 years (or sooner!):

Insurance Commissioner Rejects Filing for Being Completly Understandable

When the filing came across the examiner's desk, she thought it was a joke.

"The writing was so crisp - simple words, short sentences, you know that sort of thing.  I understood it after the first reading. And that's what I found so alarming." Explained the examiner.

The usual course for insurance contract filings often involves a series of interchanges between the insurance company and the regulatory authority before a product can be sold to the public.  Insurers often wonder if the commissioners actually read what they wrote.  Commissioners often wonder if the filing was written in English.

When the document in question reached the desk of this particular Commissioner, he knew that something must be done.

New Feature - Nate Notes

I have lots of thoughts. They pop up and reproduce like fruit flies, and I have a hell of a time trying to get them out of my head.

So, I'm going to start dumping them here and tagging them #natenotes.  They should have some shred of actuarial connection. I'd usually dump this stuff on to the Actuarial Outpost, but I want this blog to serve as a bridge between actuaries and the public. 

Over the next few months, I'll be exploring topics like:

• The Impending Robot Revolution
• Nate-rodamous - My Predictions of the Future
• Taking Chances and Making Bets
• The Next Phase of Human Evolution
• Why Do Churches Buy Insurance?
• Are Actuaries Overpaid?

...and more.  So stay tuned!

A New Way To Fill Out March Madness Brackets

Why not choose actuarial schools?  For my latest distraction, I am chronicling the basketball tournament results for schools with actuarial programs.

Should help in your office pools, or any talented hoopster with math skills trying to decide on which school to go to.

Would love to get help from anyone who's interested.

http://goo.gl/sfIVZ2

Actuarial Dis-Organizations

What started as a "yo-momma" joke has escalated into a full out battle for middle earth. At least, that is how it seems as some major actuarial organizations engage in a turf war.

To recap for the general public:

1. Actuaries are not mythical creatures.  They exist and provide a service to the public through pricing and mitigating financial risks.
2. Several actuarial organizations help actuaries accomplish that goal. 
• Some are country specific.
• Others are international.
• Others are practice oriented.
3. Individual actuaries can be, and often are, members of multiple organizations.
4. Each group has its own concerns, but until recently, they have been more collaborative than combative.  

But things changed.