Last year, I wondered if I would be concluding my COVID series.
But COVID keeps causing problems, including excess mortality in Australia. And it's not the only trouble maker. It appears the last flu was nasty. And then there's this chicken and egg problem, and its not about which came first!
So, here we are. I am now going to declare that this will be an annual tradition indefinitely. Although COVID may not be the central topic in future episodes, it seems we will have enough stuff going on to perpetuate prolific pontifications.
If you are just now tuning in, in this series I like to use the context of the virus to explore decision making and uncertainty (including modeling), and the post-COVID world.
In this installment, there are a couple themes that we will explore.
First, this seems to be the age of retaliation, with more voices pushing back against previous policy decisions.
Secondly, there are some mean reversions occurring in the post-covid world, but there other items where COVID is still causing trouble.
Decision Making vs. Confrontations
You are wrong. You are a liar. You are evil. In today's infinite information era, taking a stand on anything will likely incite some form of resistance. At best someone will be kind and point out something else for you to consider. At worst, you will be trolled and slandered.
- You can avoid addressing the criticism. Sometimes silence is the best strategy.
- You can get defensive. This is the default response for most of us.
- You can get really defensive and shoot a middle finger right back. People can be mean, especially online, so I get it.
- You can engage in informed debate. You may still "agree to disagree," but I feel that this last strategy can elevate the final landing spot on all sides of an issue.
With the election of Donald Trump to a second term, the political and even popular sentiment has taken a tone of challenging the status quo. The appointment of RFK Jr. to Secretary of Health and Human Services will continue this theme. Kennedy is vocal about several health related issues, and critical of governmental organizations meant to regulate these items as encapsulated under the "Make America Healthy Again" banner.
His confirmation hearing included his past criticisms of COVID policies and his scrutiny toward vaccines.
Eerily enough, in the film V for Vendetta, a virus is the catalyst for rebellious action. The whole campaign against authority was incited by an engineered virus implemented on a population in order to instill fear and create an opportunity for a power grab. Then a miracle cure appears to cement the control. Flavors of this trope are in other cinema (12 Monkeys, Resident Evil, etc.)
Various of this them also emerge across the internet. As of this writing, the highly influential Joe Rogan Experience podcast has featured several contrarians, including Dr. Suzanne Humphries, author of "Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and The Forgotten History" which challenges Polio vaccine narratives. (A critique of her arguments in the book can be found here.)
COVID related discussion amplified the concept of "misinformation" and "fake news." Being able to make sure the evidence stands up on your side is an important step. It can take work to dive in, go to as primary a source as you can and evaluate emerging consensus and the counterpoints. But also realize some things are difficult to provide a clear answer.
I am generally a proponent of skepticism and cynicism, so long as the challenger is willing to acknowledge circumstance, bias, and limitations. As I have evaluated the course of actions that the government has taken, I feel it is important to recap a few contextual items.
- The early days were uncertain and scary. Emotion often superseded reason.
- Data was difficult to get, sometimes wrong, and weaponized on both sides of policy decisions.
- The evolution of the virus added layers of complexity.
- As the virus has normalized, goals and motivations have changed.
We can now benefit from hindsight. In the heat of the moment, tough decisions needed to be made. It may be appropriate to challenge these decisions as being too heavy-handed. However, if the virus was even deadlier, and worse than it had been, would we have been equally as critical for not doing enough?
This is the underlying point. Any decision could face criticism. In my mind, the best way to handle a challenge is to have already anticipated it. Related to this is the idea of a "pre-mortem" exercise, imagining a thing has failed and unpacking why.
Additionally, I recently came across the phrase "hold strong opinions loosely". In other words, be ready to accept that new evidence or perspectives could change your mind.
Poke Holes in Your Models
This was an early lesson in my actuarial career. When coming up with a model for some new product feature, it was a common practice to have someone else "poke holes" in your analysis. Maybe someone will find a flaw that you can fix, and it will make your work stronger. Alternatively, you will be able to vet that your approach is indeed sound, and you will have more confidence in it.
It's kind of like having someone make sure you zipped your pants before walking out in public.
Here is a quick set of challenges to consider in life actuarial models:
- How is COVID being considered in experience assumptions?
- What is driving any mortality improvement assumption?
- Do pandemic stresses also have economic stresses?
- Are mortality shocks one time events, or is there a tail?
- Does a mortality event impact all ages/risk classes equally?
Post COVID Mean Reversions
COVID was an inflection point, a phase change, and there will never be a return to the world we knew before. As an aside, I was recently asked by my kids what major historic events have I lived through. (They are in a World War 2 study unit). My quick list was 1-the rise of the internet, 2- 9/11, 3-Financial crashes, and 4-COVID. Each thing disrupted society in different ways, and there has also been a recovery phase as well.
That said, here's what is being moved back to the way it once was or moving to a new normal.
WORK
Per Forbes: Fully flexible work situations are fading, and in-office mandates are rising, but companies are still experimenting with what will work.
"What's striking is the decline of fully flexible arrangements. Once seen as the future of work, completely flexible policies exist within only 25% of companies, down from 31% in Q1 2023. Companies aren't just suggesting office time — they're mandating it. The average days required in office have crept up to 2.78 days weekly, marking a steady increase over six months."
But workforces are more geographically spread so Zoom/Teams calls are here to stay, which means we can still get good bloopers.
EDUCATION
Per Brookings: Kids test scores are slowly coming back up in math but not ELA, with results mixed across states and student population groups.
"To put these test score declines in perspective, we can compare them to what we know about educational improvement. Even the most effective, well-implemented interventions rarely boost student achievement by more than 0.05 to 0.15 standard deviations. Yet, five years after COVID-19, the average learning losses (0.12 standard deviations in ELA and 0.17 in math) near or exceed that upper threshold. This is why recovery has been so challenging. The pandemic created gaps that, under ideal circumstances, would take multiple years of intensive, high-impact interventions to close."
Enrollment trends for public schools do not show signs of improvement yet, although data is a bit lagged. Private, charter, and homeschool data (where available) show growth in enrollment.
TBD - what the impact of the current administration will have on education.
HEALTHCARE
Continued emphasis on mental well-being persists. For children who felt traumatized by the experience, as well as adults, and even people who may have had neurological impacts as a result of infection.
Telemedicine usage is still up vs. pre-pandemic, but possibly plateauing. People are also returning to doctor's offices.
Meanwhile longevity and health trends are still talking points, and we are now entering the era of appetite suppressing drugs like Wegovy.
MISCELLANEOUS
- Animal Shelter occupancy is at a peak, even though intakes are down.
- It may still be difficult for people to form social connections and dating (even though dating apps experienced a boom).
- There is more news consumption on digital devices and social media sites vs. TV
- Travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels per the World Economic Forum.
- Housing costs are still elevated (inflation, supply chain, workers) and now interest rates. and metro areas are still depleted vs. suburbs.
BONUS CONTENT
Moody's posted a look-back on economic activity since the shutdown and offered some forward-looking thoughts.
Highlights:
- Office vacancy rate north of 20% (record high)
- A lending explosion, with private credit growing from $500billion, to $1.5 trillion
- Chinese manufacturing dominance
- Digital banking growth: 68% of adults used mobile banking in 2017, and that is projected to be 80% for 2024.
- By 2024, most countries had returned to or surpassed pre-pandemic life expectancy levels.
- Interest rate activity as an indirect effect from COVID is still playing out
- Mass transit ridership still down across the globe
Concluding Thoughts
The trials and tribulations of COVID continue to permeate through society and culture and the healing journey is ongoing. The road ahead may still be bumpy, but I continue to hold optimism that in the long run there will be changes for the better. Whether that’s a new understanding of viral infection, a more palatable public health policy during crises, or people finding ways to overcome division and isolation. We will end with one more moment from the V for Vendetta film. This country needs more than a building right now. It needs hope.
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