Nate-radamus 2025

Back in 2015, I wrote my first long range prediction post: Nate-radamus. I said 30 years+ then, but let's add 5 years and target 2050 because that is cooler than 2045.

For this update, we will see how they have aged so far, and add a few adjustments or new ones:

Age of Automation and Robotics **and AI**:

In the 2015 version, I had no idea how AI would play out. We are now in the AI Revolution, and it is shaking up EVERYTHING. Going forward, I will couple AI with robotics and automation. AI will have its tentacles in any prediction, but this one is foucsed on tech and programming, so we will keep it at home here. 

For easier tracking, I will number the predictions:

1. You will run into more robots in a day than you will people. (On Track)

• Waymo's driverless taxis are now at 450,000 rides per week and delivery drone experiments are starting to go live.
• Catalyzed by the pandemic, the self-serve model at retail stores, restaurants and grocers is still rising, although facing some turbulence. Amazon even developed the "Just Walk Out" technology. 
• AI is taking over in the customer service sector and call centers. 
• Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus said hello to the world in 2021, and other firms like Hanson Robotics and China's Ex Robot are continuing the humanoid robot space. These innovators are pushing us closer to some sort of future that fits the sci-fi movie tropes of Star Wars, Rosey from The Jetsons,  or even Blade Runner.

2.  Robotics will be the top industry in the Dow. (Uncertain)

What seems more likely is that tech and support for tech will continue to dominate.  Apple was added in 2015, Amazon in 2024, and Nvidia in 2025.  Energy will continue to be a key part of the equation as well. 

3.AI Everywhere.  (*New*) 

The proliferation of AI since the launch of Chat GPT is insane. There will be nothing untouched by AI, probably by the end of the decade. 

We will also likely see a bit of a crash from a lot of hype around AI losing its luster. However, after that, and some consolidation, the AI engines will be humming and omnipresent.

Healthcare and Longevity

I am calling out Healthcare independently and adding Longevity. 

1. We will become bionic.  (On Track)

Whether nanobots, neurochips, or replacement body parts, the presence of man-made components to our corporeal forms will continue to grow. All of these technologies continue to make improvements.

2. Humans will live to 150+ (*New*)

Continued innovations and advances in healthcare and investments into slowing aging processes will start to pay off, especially with the assistance of  AI. Radical pioneers like Bryan Johnson are reshaping what data-based solutions and personalized remedies may be able to do. There may be some major breakthroughs in cancer and other diseases in the coming decades.

Current list of centenarians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people

3. The healthcare system and distribution (in US for sure) will experience a drastic change. (On Track)

There are a ton of headwinds (and have been for a long time) facing the healthcare system and its affordability to Americans. Eventually, this will force a reshaping of healthcare, including new qualifications on who can provide care, new innovations in care delivery, and different approaches to funding other than traditional insurance. More personalization, constant monitoring, and data based diagnostics will be the dominating approach.

Education and Work

Adding work with education. The Pandemic was certainly an accelerator for change in both institutions.

1. Over half of the universities that exist today will close their doors or consolidate.(*New*)

Information is everywhere. Kids are more used to getting information from influencers than from educators. Further pressure from AI in the job sphere makes a positive return on college education  investments harder to realize.

Shifts in lower level education will also need to happen, with a higher prevalence of online or at home schooling putting pressure on the current education model.

2. We will see some sort of universal basic income.(*New*)

There is too much occupational disrutption occuring for there not to be some provision for basic needs.  How this exactly manifests will be unclear. 

3. There will be increased value in craft and art.(*New*)

Currently, we are in age of computer-generated art, video, and image. Meanwhile, robots can build houses and cars, more quickly and safely than people. As these commoditize craft and skill, authentic human design will be rarer and more precious. 

For an artists opinion on the matter, see a cartoonists review of AI and Art.

Geopolitical

1. A new political party in the US will form and gain traction. (Uncertain)

There have been three contentious elections since 2015. 

• 2016 - Trump v Clinton (which shook the world). 
• 2020 - Trump v Biden. 
• 2024 - Trump v Biden 2

 A few up and comers pushed the fringes of their political parties, particulalry Andrew Yang (Democratic candidate in 2020, who formed the Forward party) and Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican candidate in 2024 who challenged some conservative norms).  In 2020 there was a movement for a Unity ticket featuring a Republican and democrat on the ballot. There have also been movements for a more conservative party, from conservatives who dislike Trump. 

2. A new digital regime will emerge (Uncertain)

We have seen many experiments decentralization.  Bitcoin continues to thrive. And there have been other efforts for decentralized finance, science and other fields. We live in a world where borders are somewhat meaningless for communication. Tech players have deep pockets and operate globally and may lead the charge.

Hazards and Threats:

1. Pandemic. (Came True)

I (mostly) called it in 2015. Thankfully, the young weren't taken out en masse by the bug.

"...some mass pestilence/super-bug will take a heavy toll on the world's impoverished, young, and elderly. There will be some controversial quarantine practices if the pandemic is severe enough."

And since COVID-19 came out, I have been chronicling the pandemic annually. There still may be more variations of this that manifest in new ways. 

2. Cali Quake (Uncertain)

There may be some other mega super disaster involving volcanoes, super storms, and so on. However, the Cali quake is the one I see in my crystal ball.

3. Water Shortages (Uncertain)

In drier climates, there is already a lot of attention on water conservation. And the AI data centers are adding to the debate of who gets to use the water.

Prosperity

1. Humans will begin living in space.  (On Track)

This may be a space station, a lunar colony, or a martian colony, but we will begin to call a place other than earth a "home".

2. Increased Sustainability (*New*)

Whether we abolish factory farms in lieu of lab-grown meats, start finding cleaner energy, or add more green space to our city scapes, some of our hardships will lead to advances in sustainable living with next to zero energy cost.

3. Flying Cars! (*New*)

I am only throwing this one in because so many other Sci-Fi tropes are coming true. I considered teloportation (beam me up Scottie!) but I feel like the current state of drone tech plus AI aided engineering will get us to realize a more cyber punky future!