V is for Virus. And Vaccine. And Vendetta? And Vigilance.

Last year, I wondered if I would be concluding my COVID series. 

But COVID keeps causing problems, including excess mortality in Australia. And it's not the only trouble maker. It appears the last flu was nasty. And then there's this chicken and egg problem, and its not about which came first!

So, here we are. I am now going to declare that this will be an annual tradition indefinitely. Although COVID may not be the central topic in future episodes, it seems we will have enough stuff going on to perpetuate prolific pontifications.

If you are just now tuning in, in this series I like to use the context of the virus to explore decision making and uncertainty (including modeling), and the post-COVID world.

In this installment, there are a couple themes that we will explore. 

First, this seems to be the age of retaliation, with more voices pushing back against previous policy decisions. 

Secondly,  there are some mean reversions occurring in the post-covid world, but there other items where COVID is still causing trouble. 

The Viral Virus: Season 5 The Long Haul

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My family, like many, has enjoyed the Netflix Series Stranger Things - which is now coming into its final (fifth) season. As I write the fifth installment of COVID reflections, I am wondering if this will be the last edition - or if we will keep going like the Fast and the Furious Franchise.  Who knows, maybe I'll think of a prequel? 

Recap (in the style of Friends)

• Season 1 - The one when the world stopped
• Season 2 - The one with a jab
• Season 3 - The one that gives you a boost
• Season 4 - The one which has the variants

The sirens have silenced. In May of 2023, the World Health Organization ended COVID's status as a public health emergency. In September of last year, the CDC called an end to the Public Health Emergency status. 

We are transitioning from pandemic to endemic. This is somewhat of an ironic final destination since some of the early opposition to the COVID reactions was that this was "just another flu". In a way, they almost ended up being right. But there are also many many ways in which that was not true in the early days, and also many ways in which that is not true today.

COVID is still quirky - and still not that much fun. Often lingering for a long time, and can be fatal, despite developments in treatment and medicine like Paxlovid. 

Now that the virus is no longer an emergency, this also means that a lot of the monitoring and tracking is winding down. 

As we look to the future of the world where the virus has taken up residence, the questions and concerns are changing.  

When a Virus Stays Viral: Variant Edition

Hello fellow pandemic survivors! How is the bunker life treating you these days?  I know many folks may be maxed out on articles on COVID, but let's not lie - season 4 has had some new interesting twists. 

First, I came down with the 'VID while at an actuarial conference! I was down for a couple days with fever and flu like symptoms, before recovering. Spent some time quarantining to prevent spread and thankfully the rest of the fam was able to dodge the bug. 

Second, little did I know that I would get another chance to experience a catastrophic event a month later. Hurricane Ian plowed over my community in September. You can read about my thoughts on that experience, and how it is a reminder that risk is everywhere, tomorrow is never promised and lessons on resilience and resolve.

Many of the lessons from the hurricane apply to the pandemic as well. How do you alert but not panic the public, how do you save the most lives? How do you respond after the storm hits? How do you dig in for the long haul?

Third, the virus is mutating itself like it is part of the Marvel Universe or something.  The VARIANTS even sounds like a new movie in the franchise. Before we go deeper, here's a quick look back at the past 3 seasons. 

To recap: 

• Season 1  -the sky is falling
• Season 2 - putting humpty dumpty back together again
• Season 3 - same song, new verse, a little bit louder, a little bit worse

In an ongoing effort to chronicle the elements of life in COVIDland, we will revisit various themes:

1. Decision Making and Uncertainty

2. Risk Models

3. The New World

Viral Viruses - Booster Edition

Here we go with round 3 of the Corona series! 

Chronicle/Recap:

• When a Virus Goes Viral (2020) - "It’s not an abnormal thing to wonder when things will get back to normal. I don’t believe they will, I don’t think they ever do."

• When a Virus Stays Viral (2021) - "I don't know what the right answer is, but if you are arguing for restaurants and bars to open up, tell me how many grandmas you are willing to kill. Conversely, if you want to save your grandma's life, tell me how many of your neighbors should lose their homes or jobs."

We will quickly revisit the core three buckets that are continually evolving:

1. Decision making/uncertainty
2. Risk models
3. Major structural changes in the world

And for our "Booster," I will look at the questions raised in round two.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY post pandemic

• How do we recover all the bailout, relief money?
• How do rental markets/evictions unfold?
• Relocation effects?
• Company Mergers/Acquisitions - particularly in travel and entertainment

Assessment of VACCINES and  RELATED POLICIES

When a Virus Stays Viral

Last year I posted "When a Virus Goes Viral"   - 

Since then, I grew and shaved a corona beard:

I created parody songs - "Coronaville" (below),  "My Corona" (which I made for my coworkers and has some inside references) and I put a spin on some holiday favorites ( like Baby There's Covid Outside).

I made some good progress on my Netflix backlog. 

It seem the rest of the world has been doing the best it can to get through the pandemic. How are you doing folks? 

I wanted to do some reflecting and revisiting. As a recap, there are 3 items that I was curious about: 

1. Irrationality
2. Evolutions in risk modeling
3. The post-COVID world. 

Disclaimers: These observations are U.S. oriented.

When a Virus Goes Viral

In the words of Twenty One Pilots, “I’ve been thinking too much...” please indulge me in some musings on our current state of affairs and some of the implications.