Comedian Bill Burr Goes Full Actuary

Comedian Bill Burr's latest special is call "Drop Dead Years."  He explains the concept on Jimmy Fallon's show.

While the punchline creates a unique perspective on this chapter of life, the question remains, how did he come to his conclusions?  Understanding mortality patterns, and causes of death trends, is of interest to several types of groups: demographers, epidemiologists, researchers, governments, health officials, and especially actuaries.  In this article, we will explore if a comedian is actually an actuary in disguise.

Did an Actuary Inspire Dickens' Christmas Carol?

In the beloved Christmas ghost story, the miser Ebeneezer Scrooged is transformed by a visit from 3 ghosts:  Christmas Past, Present and Future. 

Perhaps these ghosts were inspired by a conversation old Charlie had with a young actuary over a bowl of porridge. By happy accident, we came across a lost page in Charles Dickens's diary.  Or we just asked Chat GPT to reproduce it. 

Emotional Actuaries

Contrary to popular stereotypes, actuaries are not emotionless robots. That’s the domain of tax collectors.

Here’s a listing of some feelings/personality traits that actuaries have.

• Valuation actuaries are reserved
• Cash flow testing actuaries have several sensitivities, and are sometimes shocking.
• Pricing actuaries are marginal.
• ALM actuaries will feel balanced on most days.
• Annuity actuaries are a mixed bunch, some are rather stoic with fixed feelings while others can be quite variable.
• P&C actuaries are rather protective.
• Pension actuaries are eager to make contributions.
• Life actuaries can be selective, ultimately.
• Health actuaries are highly adjustable.
• Disability and Long Term Care actuaries are morbid.
• Investment actuaries are interesting, but hedging actuaries can be exotic.
• Reinsurance actuaries share everything.
• Experience study actuaries are occasionally incredulous.
• Regulatory actuaries are very formal.
• Governance actuaries are controlled.
• Academic actuaries are collegial.
• Retired actuaries, if all went to plan, will be untaxed.
• Chief Actuaries get bored of directors.
• An Appointed Actuary is opinionated.
• Finally, actuarial students are testy. These are fragile creatures, often on the brink of mental breakdowns, so please treat them with a lot of love and care!

On the topic of emotions, a new tool for understanding how actuaries are feeling is now on the market.  Introducing the Actuarial Mood Ring!

Book Review: The Ultimate Actuarial Joke Book and Best Tweets From Actuarial Problem Dog by John Lee

It is with much chagrin and envy that I offer my review of a pair of books composed by John Lee, a.k.a the Actuarial Tutor. 

I once had a dream to dominate the actuarial humor market. Now, I realize I have to share it. I missed the boat on being the first to publish an actuarial joke book, but perhaps I can still claim the best actuarial parody blog on the internet.  And while I may not have my tweets compiled into a reader, I can take pride in the occasional zinger I throw out there. 

But this is not supposed to be a jealous rant, so let me swallow my pride and proceed to support a fellow actuarial humorist. 

Actuaries are a rare breed. And if you are lucky enough to find one, you may get a chance to get a glimpse of actuarial wit and charm.  But if you are unable to find one or if you happen to be an actuary who wants to present proof that actuaries are indeed capable of humor, then John Lee's books are just what you need. 

Actuaries Are So Covert the CIA Wants Them As Spies!

The worn trope of the actuary is that they are total introverts - practically invisible. The job no one has ever heard of and no can explain. It doesn't even sound like a real thing.  They even refer to themselves as 'unicorns.'

It turns out that this sort of elusiveness may be in demand by the CIA - and in this case, not the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, but the actual US Government Central Intelligence Agency. 

A recent job opportunity popped up on the Society of Actuaries Website and while the job title is for a Science, Technology, and Weapons Analyst, we all know that this is just a front. This is a chance to build a network of  undercover actuaries, a legion of nerdy spies that will assess and mitigate risks with silent proficiency. 

Cue the Liam Neeson voice over:

..what I do have are a very particular set of skills. Skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you...

The only remaining question is how do you like your martini - shaken or stirred? 

(This post will self destruct in 30 seconds)

Actuaryland: A Theme Park Designed By and For Actuaries

Inspired by recent activity on Twitter, a nationally recognized amusement park design firm is entering a concept phase for a new niche attraction. 

The impetus of the idea came out of an exchange on the popularity of Bayesian Statistics - to which one @loveactuary responded "in actuaryland we love em" - to which @EvanSparks chimed in "Actuaryland: the theme park where all the roller coasters have accurate forecast for how long a guest can ride before throwing up." This is now commonly referred to as the Puke Index.

And thus a concept is born.

Like all theme parks, the admission price will likely cost a small fortune. @nateworrell went as far to say that all tickets will have to be 'prefunded.' 

Even with a ticket, the entry into the park will likely require patrons to have to pass through a series of entry requirements, each one mentally and emotionally demanding. Less than half of ticketed guests are expected to actually make it into the park.

Once in the park there are several marquee attractions. Of course lines and wait times are going to be unavoidable - @Catuary1 adds a new twist with a policy not to disclose estimated wait times to park goers. Instead "they will roughly tell you how long the wait is but it is very vague...".  This should certainly ramp up the levels of anxiety and apprehension!

And as you read the descriptions, it is important to remember that in Actuaryland "all the rides are simulations" (@nateworrell):

Box Tops and Other Ways to Earn Actuarial Credentials

Recently, the SOA announced new ways to get credit toward an actuarial credential via university credit.  The approach was viewed with mixed results.  The SOA claimed the initiative was motivated to foster inclusion. The Organization of Latino Actuaries wrote a public letter asking the SOA to withdraw the program on the basis that it is counterproductive to inclusivity goals.

Whether or not the SOA goes back to the drawing board remains to be seen. In the interim other means of credentialing actuaries are emerging.

Manager Thought Actuary was Protesting for a Decade

A local actuary informed his manager that he would take the day off to join some peaceful protesters.

The manager was stunned. 

For the past ten years the actuary had been virtually silent at work and avoided most team building exercises.

The manager admitted she completely misread the lack of eye contact as an intentional act designed to bring awareness to some cause.

“I thought he was making a statement about the corporate world not seeing people as people or something. I thought it was strange to protest in the middle of a protest.”

The confusion went both ways. The actuary explained (through email) that the manager was just really a supportive person. She’d often say “I’m with you.”

When asked why she never inquired about what issue the imagined protest was concerning, her explanation was simple “I didn’t want to look like a fool.”

After a follow up meeting, both sides agreed to make changes. The manager is making less assumptions and learning a lot more about her staff. The actuary committed to go to more happy hours. As a result the work environment is stronger than ever and morale is super high. 

They are hoping to share these tactics with other groups. They have cautious optimism that they might find out what the people in Corporate Business Strategy actually do.

Are Actuaries Born or is it a Choice?

When Rita was 3 years old she had a tendency to stack blocks in probability distribution shapes. At first her mother thought the patterns were just imaginative.  But then when Rita started making histograms with candy pieces and named her pet hamster 'chi-squared', she understood there was something else at play.  Rita is now a junior in college and is bristling with excitement at starting her first internship at an insurance company in the actuarial department.

Angela is also starting her first internship in the same area.   She still isn't sure if the actuarial science will live up to its hype.  She's also thinking about the possibility of being a math teacher or trying to make it as a drummer in a female punk rock band.

Both women represent two ends of the hotly debated topic - are actuaries born or is it a choice?

Big Data needs Big Actuaries

The American Academy of Actuaries recently published a monograph Big Data and the Role of the Actuary.

Some speculate that the Academy may also produce a monolith dedicated to Big Data as well.

Or maybe a monogram.

Either way, what is certain is that Big Data and the applicable statistical methods that come along with it are going to play a significant role in the actuarial profession.

And in order to handle Big Data, you need a Big Actuary.

New Actuarial Standard on How To Put on Pants

Recent ASB proposals for modeling, pricing, and assumption setting standards of practice seem to be starting a trend of codifying every single action an actuary takes.  The latest release seems to confirm this theory.

An exposure draft, titled  "Lower Body Coverings" is currently in progress.

Apparently there is much concern in the actuarial community about the quality of work can vary based on how one applies lower limb coverings. An improper procedure may result in further deterioration of judgment, confidence, and overall work product. To put it one way, the exposure draft deals with the risks of feeling drafts while exposed.

New Insurance Products Announced for Undead

In an effort to find new business, insurers are dabbling into new, untapped markets.

Traditionally the insurance industry protected against two risks - dying to soon via Life Insurance or outliving your assets (longevity) via Annuities.

The limiting factor to each of these is that you either had to be alive or die to collect a claim.  This was an issue if you were already dead, sort of dead, or came back to life after death.  Now, a new set of products is coming on to the market to meet those needs.

Bayesian Rhapsody

The whole thing with Bayes is about updating likelihoods given more information. Let's see how Queen takes us on a Bayesian journey.

Update:  The Bohemian Rhapsody movie did not take any of this information into account.

We start with a fundamental question about the nature of reality, and fact about landslides.

Is this the real life? Pr(Real Life) = ?
Is this just fantasy? Pr(Fantasy) = 1 - Pr(Real Life)
Caught in a landslide,
No escape from reality Pr(Real Life | Caught in a landslide ) = 1

You Wouldn't Believe What Jacob Bernoulli Looks Like Now

What would it be like if historic mathematicians lived today and were as popular as some of the most notorious celebs?  In this series of posts (#mathgonewild) Between the Spreadsheets makes parallels between founders of major mathematical thought and current celebs, and we create some tabloid headings. Feel free to comment, argue, or add to the list.

The  Bernoulli's 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_family

Ever heard the song "John -Jacob-Jinglehiemer Schmidt?"  Probably came from these guys, where most dudes in the family are names Johan or Jacob or Nick. The family has an impressive resume, but the tabloids are pretty good too.

Models and Drunks

I am not referring to Gigi or Gisele or Gumble or Griffin.  Rather, "models and drunks" is a contrite summary of a couple of my recent readings that I figured should find their way to this space. (By the way,  this confusion about models has happened before.)

First, models. I have long been a fan of the phrase that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." However, much to my shame, I know not where it came from.  Now I do. Thank you Twitter for enlightening me about George Box and his paper.   Not only am I know aware, but I have been shaken to my core. More on that later.

Second, drunks - and specifically how they walk.  The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow (http://leonardmlodinow.com/) is what I call a mathematician's apologetic - an attempt to make math accessible to the masses.   His book is part of my attempt to work through a reading list (again - thanks Twitter!) of math texts.  I give the guy a couple of stars for effort on the mathematical narration, but the real gold is in the cast of characters.  They will be featured in a future post.  In this post, I will leave you with flip flops.

Engage or Disengage?

Recently, the Society of Actuaries deployed their latest community site, SOA Engage.
https://engage.soa.org/home

While unlikely to get the traction of the Actuarial Outpost or a Reinsurance sponsored Happy Hour at a symposium, the threshold is pretty low.  A few actuaries showing up will likely be considered a win.

This initiative brings to mind a past article by BTS, about actuaries engineering anti-social Media.
http://betweenthespreadsheets.blogspot.ca/2013/04/actuaries-engineer-anti-social-media.html

If Donald Trump Ran for SOA President

The current political pageantry and it's primary peacock, one Donald J Trump, has inspired Between the Spreadsheets to ponder, if we could find it palatable, a parallel universe in which this prima dona found himself placed on the ballot for SOA President. 

We pulled the questionnaire from the society's website and did our best to imagine how the Donald may have answered, pulling direct quotes where possible, indicated by " ", everything else is fiction.

Readers are welcome to add Trumpisms that may apply.

Paid To Be Wrong vs. Paid to be Right

For today's Nate Note, I'm considering various occupations and various tolerances for "rightness" and "wrongness".  My primary question is, in what professions can you be wrong and still keep your job?

Comedian Louis CK Goes Full Actuary

So I'm watching Netflix and enjoying a little comedy when I hear Louis CK make some actuarial statements. In this video clip, you can hear his remarks - note that this YouTube link is not authorized by Louis CK to my knowledge and it is his full special.  There is strong language in it. You can find the full version on Netflix or purchase it from Louis CK's website. After watching for a minute or so, let's unpack the statements.  I'll try to do it in such a way that even non-actuary's can follow. Other actuaries reading this - my methods are crude, feel free to make it more exact if you desire.

The Fed Awakens - Actuarial Reactions Vary

Image from Jeff Burney at
 http://www.cartoonmovement.com/cartoon/26133

The rumors, speculation and controversial photos of the fed funds rate looking a bit pudgier than normal can come to an end as Janet Yellen confirmed that rates are no longer zero.

The recent Fed announcement that marked the end of easy money also sparked interesting reactions from the actuarial community.